This summer, member centres participating in our quarterly statistics scheme recorded 75% of the student weeks seen in the last pre-pandemic summer of 2019. Recovery has slowed since the first six months of the year, when 81% was achieved.

In a maturing industry, with student numbers static or falling, it is quite possible that these figures represent 'a new normal' where destinations compete for a stable or shrinking pool of students who want to study English abroad.

We expect 2024 to be on a par with 2023 but not exceed it

'Overall, we expect 2024 to be on a par with 2023 but not exceed it,' said Jodie Gray, our chief executive. 'We are considering 2023/2024 as the new normal with figures unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs or trends.'

Challenges include visa restrictions and regulations in major destinations, cost of living pressures, evolving technology, improving English tuition in home countries and increased provision in intra-regional destinations. 

New economic impact report baseline 

'In 2025, we will publish a new economic impact assessment of the ELT sector on the UK economy, an exercise we last completed in 2018. We will launch this and our new position paper in Parliament at our 2025 Parliamentary Reception with government officials, media representatives and industry stakeholders,' said Jodie, adding: 'The government can make a huge difference to our success, as recent clampdowns in competitor markets have demonstrated.

'Since 2023, there have been some major shifts. Right now, the UK's approach is more welcoming than that in some of our competitor destinations. Canada and Australia are currently grappling with government policies that are restricting international student numbers.'

Youth mobility scheme could be a 'game-changer'

She said that English UK would continue to lobby the UK government for practical changes to the immigration regime that would promote further UK ELT growth, adding: 'A youth mobility scheme for the whole of the EU and other nations globally would be a game-changer.'

English UK intelligence schemes such as QUIC and the annual statistics also allow the association and individual members to focus on areas of potential growth. Areas of growth in 2023 where the UK has low market share include Brazil, Japan, Vietnam and China. 

Top sending markets: Italy, Saudi Arabia, China, Turkey and Brazil

Q3 2024 QUIC figures show Italy, Saudi Arabia, China, Turkey and Brazil as the top five sending nations, with the top ten responsible for 72% of all student weeks. Compared to summer 2023, Turkey showed the largest absolute increase in student weeks (up 3,282) and Italy the largest decline, down 7,611. China experienced a 5,222 drop in adult student weeks, which is almost equivalent to the 4,791 rise in junior weeks.

UK the destination for juniors 

With an overall ratio of 55% adult student weeks to 45% junior, Q3 2024 marks the highest proportion of student weeks from juniors ever recorded. However, the volume is down 21% since the same quarter in 2019 and is 10% less than last summer.

Jodie said that junior students accounted for 60% of the UK market in 2023, almost an exact reversal of the global picture where adults accounted for 61%. 'The importance of the junior segment in the UK grew steadily before 2019, but this growth has accelerated in the post-pandemic period,' she said.  

>> Download the QUIC 2024 Q3 executive summary